2023 Review – A year of “wait and see”.
09 January 2024

2023 witnessed a variety of macroeconomic events from continuing war in Ukraine, the new conflict erupting in Gaza as well as raising interest rates and concerns of market slowdowns, even recession across many parts of the world.

Bringing it back to Luxembourg and more specifically, the financial services recruitment market, we experienced a 20% decline in new roles compared to 2022.

“Wait & See”

Our client base is mostly Asset Managers. With increasing interest rates, we saw our Real Estate Investment clients slow their appetite to acquire which in turn led to fewer new positions opening in Luxembourg.
As you would expect, in contrast, we did see increased activity from those firms who focus more on the debt side.
What we saw mainly was a “wait and see” approach. Wait and see if interest rates would start to plateau or even fall, wait and see if markets would pick up and wait and see if a solution for peace can be found in Ukraine and Gaza.
This not only affected the recruitment plans for firms who are already based in Luxembourg, but we also have several clients in London, New York and Paris who were looking to set up offices in Luxembourg in 2023. All of them have put these plans on hold and are waiting to see what happens at the start of 2024.

“Cost cutting & Social Plans”

During Q4 of 2023, we started to hear about potential social plans from various Banks and other Financial Services firms in Luxembourg. Another indicator of costing cutting for us is the redundancy of senior members of staff who are not replaced but instead, those underneath are being promoted. We certainly met with more Senior Managers, Directors and C-level executives who are aware they will be either definitely be looking for a new job in 2024 or very highly likely.
Social plans might be something can to fruition more in 2024 potentially but we have started hearing the “chatter” about this already in 2023.

“Jobseekers”

In 2022, jobseekers held all the cards and there was an abundance of roles one could choose from. The jobseeker could often lay their own demands to pick one role over another and increase their salary by over 20% hence encouraging them to do this again less than 12 months later in many cases. People resigning without another job to go to was also common as they were sure of finding another role after taking a few months off.
However, we have had calls from worried candidates who are unable to find a new position as quickly as they thought. The tables are slowly (and I mean slowly!) turning back in favour of the employer. The last time we truly saw this in full effect was in 2008/2009. As employers have fewer vacancies and not the urgency to recruit, they are becoming pickier and happier to wait to find the right person.

“Thoughts for 2024”

Although we do hear talk of social plans for some of the larger employers and are seeing senior level dismissals, I am hopeful and positive for 2024. I think the market will start to balance slightly more between the demands of an employer and jobseeker and I believe companies will be more positive in their decision-making timescales over hiring.

We have held consultations with a number of our clients in the past few weeks and months to discuss 2024 hiring and overall, I am pleased to say it is positive.

Whatever happens in 2024, I wish you a very happy and healthy year!